TALK    [MERL Seminar Series 2023] Dr. Rupert Way presents talk titled Empirically Grounded Technology Forecasts and the Energy Transition

Date & Time:

Tuesday, January 31, 2023; 11:00 AM

Abstract:

Rapidly decarbonising the global energy system is critical for addressing climate change, but concerns about costs have been a barrier to implementation. Historically, most energy-economy models have overestimated the future costs of renewable energy technologies and underestimated their deployment, thereby overestimating total energy transition costs. These issues have driven calls for alternative approaches and more reliable technology forecasting methods. We use an approach based on probabilistic cost forecasting methods to estimate future energy system costs in a variety of scenarios. Our findings suggest that, compared to continuing with a fossil fuel-based system, a rapid green energy transition will likely result in net savings of many trillions of dollars - even without accounting for climate damages or co-benefits of climate policy.

Speaker:

Rupert way
University of Oxford

Dr Rupert Way is an Associate at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the University of Oxford. He has a PhD in mathematics, and his current research focuses on energy system modeling, technology forecasting, innovation and technological change, portfolio analysis, and understanding strategies for accelerating the sustainable energy transition.

MERL Host:

Ye Wang