TR2025-001
Probabilistic Forecasting for Building Energy Systems: Are Time-Series Foundation Models The Answer?
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- "Probabilistic Forecasting for Building Energy Systems: Are Time-Series Foundation Models The Answer?", Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), December 2024.BibTeX TR2025-001 PDF
- @inproceedings{Park2024dec,
- author = {Park, Young-Jin and Germain, François G and Liu, Jing and Wang, Ye and Koike-Akino, Toshiaki and Wichern, Gordon and Christopher R. and Azizan, Navid and Laughman, Chakrabarty, Ankush}},
- title = {Probabilistic Forecasting for Building Energy Systems: Are Time-Series Foundation Models The Answer?},
- booktitle = {Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS)},
- year = 2024,
- month = dec,
- url = {https://www.merl.com/publications/TR2025-001}
- }
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- "Probabilistic Forecasting for Building Energy Systems: Are Time-Series Foundation Models The Answer?", Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), December 2024.
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MERL Contacts:
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Research Areas:
Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Multi-Physical Modeling
Abstract:
Accurate time-series forecasting is essential for real-world applications such as predictive maintenance and feedback control. While deep neural networks have shown promise in recognizing complex patterns and predicting trends, their generalization capabilities are open to debate, and they typically do not perform well with limited data. In this paper, we examine the potential of time-series foundation models (TSFM) as a practical solution for addressing real-world (probabilistic) forecasting challenges. Our experiments using real building data demonstrate that, through fine-tuning TSFMs, we can achieve excellent predictions, even with limited data, and improve generalization in zero-shot prediction on unseen tasks.